The Kentucky Derby For The Amateur Horse Race Fan
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
, Posted by Your Travel Buddy at 5:32 AM
Although the Breeders' Cup is nipping at its heels, without a doubt the Kentucky Derby is the biggest horse race of the year in the United States. This is a race that attracts many fans from the general public that typically don't follow horse racing. A thorough understanding of horse racing, and which horses will win and why is a complex discipline that requires extensive specialized knowledge.
Despite the complexity of understanding horse racing, there are a few basic rules that can help the novice watch the Kentucky Derby with a greater degree of enjoyment. Until recently, the Derby was a race dominated by the favorite. In the 1970's great horses like Secretariat and Seattle Slew blew away the field but since Spectacular Bid's winning run in 1979 there have been only a couple of favorites to win the big race. While a serious horse player might not want to categorically dismiss the popular favorite, for the horse racing novice this is a helpful way to narrow down the field.
In all fairness, it should be noted that the favorite has been a historically strong proposition. In the 135 Kentucky Derby races the post time favorite has placed in the money at a 69% clip over the history of the race. So why have the favorites been on such a money losing run in the past two decades? My personal theory is that it is a function of the growing hype surrounding the race"in other words, you get a lot of amateur horse racing fans that distort the notion of the favorite being the most likely to win the race. The most hyped horse becomes the favorite, but this is not always the best horse. In any case, though it could be argued that the anti-favorite bias could be due for a turnaround, for the purpose of understanding this particular race Im going to forget about the post time favorite.
Another important component of Kentucky derby success is the post position of the horses. The innermost positions (1 through 5) have produced over 40% of all Derby winners, while the outer post positions (11 through 20) have had only 13% winners. Note that in some years there might not be that many horses in the race, which would help partially explain the poor performance of the outer start positions. Still, for the purposes of understanding a single race eliminating all of the less favorable start positions is a good idea.
A horse's lineage and breeding is also an important factor in the race. While this may be the most complex and demanding area of horse racing, there is a simple rule of thumb that can help a novice for this race. Most high level race horses are born in Kentucky. Well over 80% of Derby winners have also been born in the Bluegrass State. So just eliminate all horses that weren't born in Kentucky. Then consider a horse's gender and eliminate any horse that isn't an intact male (geldings and fillies). Over 90% of all Derby winners have been intact males, though a gelding did win the race in 2003 (Funny Cide). For the horse racing novice, however,this is another good way to pare down the field.
Dosage index numbers have also taken on a great deal of significance in recent years. What are dosage numbers you ask? I have no clue, beyond the fact that theyre a complex mathematical measurement that reflects the quality of the horses family tree, as well as his performance as a two-year-old. The conventional wisdom is that horses with a dosage index over 4.00 are not supposed to be competitive at the long 1 mile distance. This isnt always the case, of course, but for the dilettante its a good factor to consider. Since 1984 (when dosage systems first came into vogue), the winners of nine Derby races were dosage system selections.
These are just a few steps that will serve you well if you dont know much about horses. Again, if you want to take a more serious approach to understanding horse racing you should look into the many books dedicated to the subject. For a recreational horse race enthusiast, however, these basic rules are helpful in trying to predict the Derby winner.
Despite the complexity of understanding horse racing, there are a few basic rules that can help the novice watch the Kentucky Derby with a greater degree of enjoyment. Until recently, the Derby was a race dominated by the favorite. In the 1970's great horses like Secretariat and Seattle Slew blew away the field but since Spectacular Bid's winning run in 1979 there have been only a couple of favorites to win the big race. While a serious horse player might not want to categorically dismiss the popular favorite, for the horse racing novice this is a helpful way to narrow down the field.
In all fairness, it should be noted that the favorite has been a historically strong proposition. In the 135 Kentucky Derby races the post time favorite has placed in the money at a 69% clip over the history of the race. So why have the favorites been on such a money losing run in the past two decades? My personal theory is that it is a function of the growing hype surrounding the race"in other words, you get a lot of amateur horse racing fans that distort the notion of the favorite being the most likely to win the race. The most hyped horse becomes the favorite, but this is not always the best horse. In any case, though it could be argued that the anti-favorite bias could be due for a turnaround, for the purpose of understanding this particular race Im going to forget about the post time favorite.
Another important component of Kentucky derby success is the post position of the horses. The innermost positions (1 through 5) have produced over 40% of all Derby winners, while the outer post positions (11 through 20) have had only 13% winners. Note that in some years there might not be that many horses in the race, which would help partially explain the poor performance of the outer start positions. Still, for the purposes of understanding a single race eliminating all of the less favorable start positions is a good idea.
A horse's lineage and breeding is also an important factor in the race. While this may be the most complex and demanding area of horse racing, there is a simple rule of thumb that can help a novice for this race. Most high level race horses are born in Kentucky. Well over 80% of Derby winners have also been born in the Bluegrass State. So just eliminate all horses that weren't born in Kentucky. Then consider a horse's gender and eliminate any horse that isn't an intact male (geldings and fillies). Over 90% of all Derby winners have been intact males, though a gelding did win the race in 2003 (Funny Cide). For the horse racing novice, however,this is another good way to pare down the field.
Dosage index numbers have also taken on a great deal of significance in recent years. What are dosage numbers you ask? I have no clue, beyond the fact that theyre a complex mathematical measurement that reflects the quality of the horses family tree, as well as his performance as a two-year-old. The conventional wisdom is that horses with a dosage index over 4.00 are not supposed to be competitive at the long 1 mile distance. This isnt always the case, of course, but for the dilettante its a good factor to consider. Since 1984 (when dosage systems first came into vogue), the winners of nine Derby races were dosage system selections.
These are just a few steps that will serve you well if you dont know much about horses. Again, if you want to take a more serious approach to understanding horse racing you should look into the many books dedicated to the subject. For a recreational horse race enthusiast, however, these basic rules are helpful in trying to predict the Derby winner.
About the Author:
Ross Everett is a freelance writer who has written on sports gambling and how to successfully bet on NFL football. He has appeared on TV and radio talking about boxing, hockey and NFL pointspreads. He lives in Las Vegas with three Jack Russell Terriers and a lynx.
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